“Peace talks between Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas won’t succeed in finding a permanent solution to the conflict.” I didn’t say this ... it’s a quote from Yossi Beilin, a former Israeli justice minister, architect of the Oslo Accord, and a veteran leftwinger.

Although I’m at the opposite end of the political spectrum from Beilin, I agree with his conclusion. Beilin’s main arguments are that, “The talks should deal with what the parties are prepared to implement, and not with what they are forced to do as a result of American pressure: open negotiations on a partial and temporary agreement.” And: “Abbas can’t implement a peace agreement with Israel because as long as Hamas retains control of Gaza, Gaza won’t be part of the solution, and there can’t be any ‘safe passage’ between the West Bank and Gaza. In addition, it won’t be possible to work out land swaps between Israel and the West Bank because the area designated for swaps is the region surrounding the Gaza Strip, and no Israeli government would agree to hand over land adjacent to Gaza while it is still under Hamas control.” (www.bloomberg.com/news)

Many media reports are talking about the “800 pound gorilla in the room.” That’s the terrorist organization Hamas, which threw Fatah, President Abbas’ political party, out of Gaza in 2006. Abbas, whose term of office officially ended in January 2009, barely has a mandate to negotiate on behalf of the West Bank Palestinians. He certainly isn’t representing the Arabs in Gaza, who are under the thumb of Hamas.

But you don’t hear a public word about this from President Obama, Secretary of State Clinton, President Abbas or Prime Minister Netanyahu. Before one considers whether Abbas or Netanyahu could deliver on promises made in peace negotiations, the issue of Gaza’s one million-plus Palestinians left out of the arrangements has to be dealt with. This issue is my number one reason to expect failure in the current peace initiative.

My second reason concerns the painful sacrifices that will have to be made on both sides. The majority of Israelis want peace. We have already made sacrifices and we are prepared to make additional ones, provided there is reciprocal Palestinian action. So far, Israel has given up its security zone in southern Lebanon, leaving a vacuum that was quickly filled by Hizbullah, Iran’s proxy army. Hizbullah, assisted by Syria, has become a potent adversary on our northern borders, one of the results of which was the Second Lebanon War in 2006.

Israel also withdrew from Gaza, evicting 8,000 Jews and leaving a vacuum that was quickly filled by another Iranian proxy: Hamas. Though not quite as powerful or well organized as Hizbullah, Hamas is nevertheless a potent adversary along our southwestern border. Israel fought Operation Cast Lead in Gaza against Hamas during the winter of 2008/9. Without the presence of the Israel Defense Forces in the West Bank, also known as Judea and Samaria, the government of President Abbas would have fallen to Hamas long ago. If the IDF leaves, Hamas would instigate a bloody civil war to take control there.

Because Islamic terror resulted from Israel’s withdrawals from southern Lebanon and Gaza, Israelis are wary of further “land for peace” swaps. Nevertheless, Israelis are hungry for peace and are willing to consider further compromises.

We see nothing similar from the Palestinians. While it is universally said that “everyone knows the parameters of the eventual peace settlement,” Arab governments have not made a single effort to prepare the Arab street to give up the Palstinian “right of return” to Israel, to give up the idea of Palestinians taking control of the Old City in Jerusalem, nor to give up the idea of a halfmillion plus Israelis being transferred from their many communities beyond the 1949 Armistice Line (the Green Line).

My third reason to expect failure in the current round of peace talks is demographic. Twenty percent of Israel’s citizens are Palestinian Arabs who enjoy full civil rights, including the right to vote. How many Jews live in the territory beyond the Green Line? About 550,000: 250,000 in Jerusalem and 300,000 in Judea and Samaria. What will happen to these Jews?

Estimates vary as to the number of Palestinians in the West Bank. If you believe the Palestinian Authority, as most governments and the United Nations do, 2.5 million Palestinians live in the West Bank. Other sources contend that there is a “million person gap,” with a Palestinian population of only 1.5 million in the West Bank (www.israeldemography.com). Even using the higher Palestinian count, the Jewish population represents more than 20 percent of the total in the disputed West Bank area.

The Western powers have turned their backs on democratic principles by acquiescing to the Palestinian demand to proclaim a “Jew-free” state. An idea that is anathema in America – total segregation of races or religions – is proposed as normal for a Palestinian state. Not that it would be the first racist Arab state: Saudi Arabia, Lebanon and Jordan, for example, permit no Jewish citizens. We’ve come to expect this of the Arabs, but for America to assent to a Jew-free state of Palestine is scandalous. There can be no Palestinian state that will not allow Jewish residents. The alternative is a wholesale redrawing of borders, which will redefine Israeli Arabs as citizens of Palestine, an idea that Israeli Arabs vehemently oppose.

In addition to the above three fatal impediments to peace, there are murderous attacks by Arab terrorists while Muslim governments’ incitement against Jews and Israel has not even paused. By bringing parties to a peace conference which has no chance of reaching a successful conclusion, President Obama has followed in the ill-starred footsteps of previous administrations. My fear is that the result will be another intifada, such as occurred in 2002 after the failed Camp David meeting, when thousands died.

If America and the West wish to be proactive in producing peace between the Palestinians and Israelis, a better way would be to prepare the Arabs to accept the reality of the Jewish state of Israel in the Middle East, where it inhabits about one-half of one per cent of the total area and where it shares its tiny country with an Arab population amounting to 20 percent of its population.

Stephen Kramer’s new book,“Encountering Israel – Geography, History, Culture,” can be ordered in Israel from mskramer@jhu.edu, or order worldwide at: www.comteqpublishing.com.

Stephen Kramer resided and worked in the Atlantic City area until 1991, when he moved to Israel with his wife, Michal Langweiler, and two sons. He can be reached at Sjk1@jhu.edu.