The acronym is COIN for counterinsurgency, but for many Americans the long deadly Afghanistan War is looking more and more like something else – nation building. When General Stanley McChrystal shot into the headlines with his “Runaway General” interview in Rolling Stone magazine, he also brought our Afghanistan strategy back into question. Although President Obama emphasized that his decision to remove General McChrystal was about “personnel and not policy,” the American people are becoming more and more disillusioned with the war – longer than Vietnam – and the rising number of deaths, now over 1120.

Afghanistan has been called “the graveyard of empires,” a country with a history of failed wars and occupations by outside forces: Britain, Russia and the Taliban whom the U.S. ousted in late 2001. It is also described as having the most inhospitable terrain in the world for successful invasion and occupation. The Afghan people are composed of tribal groups that date back thousands of years with entrenched rivalries and conflicts. With this as the foundation and framework, how should we assess the current government in Kabul headed by President Hamid Karzai? What is COIN supposed to be accomplishing? What is the actual state of the war in Afghanistan? Finally, how and when will the United States leave Afghanistan?

Let’s begin with the internal struggles going on within the country’s major tribal groups. That is where the final outcome of the war may lie – not as a result of our COIN policy. Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara tribes make up almost half of Afghanistan’s population. They are considered minority communities since Pashtun tribes which include President Karzai and most of the Taliban account for the other half of the population. Ethnic Pashtuns ruled the country for generations. When the Soviet Union withdrew from Afghanistan in l989, Civil War broke out between the Pashtun and minority tribes, lasting until the United States invasion in 2001. More than 100,000 Afghans died in that war. During the five-year Taliban reign before 2001, large-scale massacres of Hazara civilians took place in Kabul. For the tribes, these memories are still fresh.

The Tajik, Uzbek and Hazara groups are very wary of President Karzai and his overtures to the Taliban and Pakistan. They believe, as do many outside observers, that Karzai stole the election and is continuing his corrupt government. They were very disturbed when Karzai removed Bismullah Khan as chief of staff of the Afghan Army and made him the interior minister. The ethnic mix of the army and field units is basically the same proportion as the total population. Khan is an ethnic Tajik and a former leader of the forces that fought the Taliban before September 11. Another high level change was the forced resignation of Armullah Saleh, the head of Afghan intelligence, an ethnic Tajik and friendly to American interests.

Leaders of the minority tribes are beginning to organize and speak out publicly. Abdullah Abdullah, of Tajik and Pashtun heritage, is a former foreign minister and presidential candidate who has been leading meetings at his farm outside Kabul. He plans to form an opposition party to include Afghans from all the tribal groups, although his main power has been from the Tajik. He is against sharing power with the Taliban because they are fundamentalist Islamists and use terrorism to enforce their beliefs. He said in an interview, “We bring the Taliban into the government – we give them one or two provinces. If that is what they think, it is not going to happen that way. Anybody thinking in that direction, they are lost. Absolutely lost. They will take advantage of this and then they will continue.” He was joined in this warning by Rehman Oghly, an Uzbek member of Parliament and a former member of an anti-Taliban militia, “Karzai is giving Afghanistan back to the Taliban, and he is opening up the old schisms. If he wants to bring in the Taliban, and they begin to use force, then we will go back to civil war and Afghanistan will be split.”

Dexter Filkins reported in the New York Times from Kabul on June 27: “The deepening estrangement of Afghanistan’s non-Pashtun communities presents a paradox for the Americans and their NATO partners. American commanders have concluded that only a political settlement can end the war. But in helping Mr. Karzai to make a deal, they risk reigniting Afghanistan’s ethnic strife.” Admiral Mike Mullen, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff said in an interview that he was worried about “the Tajik-Pashtun divide that has been so strong. It has the potential to really tear the country apart.” Then he added, “That’s not what we are going to permit.”

What are American citizens to think? President Obama made very clear when he removed General McChrystal from office that we are committed to our policy in Afghanistan. But, many citizens and political observers are not clear on what that policy is and where it will lead us. We know that counterinsurgency has not been going well. The Marja campaign, which initially caused the Taliban to withdraw, is now called a “bleeding ulcer” by American authorities. Taliban fighters return at will and continuing to terrorize the civilians with murder and mayhem. The Khandahar campaign, aimed at the heart of the Taliban, has changed course. American soldiers are complaining that they are not receiving sufficient back-up and air cover when needed in their fire fights. Deaths and casualties are mounting.

On June 28, President Karzai met with two important Pakistani officials in Kabul - General Kayani, the army chief of staff and Lt. General Pasha, the chief of intelligence. Pakistan has been threatened by Taliban in their own country and has launched campaigns against certain strongholds. However, Pakistan’s motives in Afghanistan are murky as they appear to be taking advantage of the stalled American/NATO military campaign. They have discussed with Karzai giving the Haqqani network, a brutal Taliban group with ties to Al Qaeda, a role in Afghanistan. The meeting on June 28 raised new anxieties among the non-Pashtun tribes in the country. Mohammed Mohaqeq, a Hazara leader said, “Karzai has begun the ethnic war. The future is very dark.”

President Karzai has said publicly that he no longer believes that the Americans and NATO can prevail in Afghanistan. He appears open to a deal with the Taliban who are ready and eager to take over. Isn’t it time for us to believe him and change our policy of nation building? The Afghan people may be moving toward a violent clash of tribal groups. We cannot stop that unless we stay there as occupiers for decades. Our plan to create a stable government and country does not have a chance against the deadly reality of Afghanistan today. We need to move the timetable up for bringing our troops home and giving the country back to the Afghan people.

Joyce S. Anderson is the author of “Courage in High Heels,” “Flaw in the Tapestry,” “If Winter Comes” and “The Mermaids Singing.” She can be reached at JSAWrite@aol.com.