Pakistan On The Edge

The War in Afghanistan has been at the center of debate as President Barack Obama wrestled with a review of goals, strategy and related troop levels. The original mission in October 2001 was to destroy Al Qaeda and capture Osama Bin Laden "dead or alive." Eight years later, Bin Laden is believed to be in the mountains of Pakistan along with most of his Al Qaeda followers. More ominous, Pakistan has been wracked by coordinated attacks and violence from Taliban, Al Qaeda and Punjabi militants aimed at bringing down the government.

Pakistan is an independent nation with a nuclear arsenal, and President Asif Ali Zadari is dealing with complex internal and external divisions and pressures. The economy is weak and the military establishment is strong. With steady infiltration of Al Qaeda and the Taliban from Afghanistan, President Zadari came to Washington last May to convince the United States that they would repel the incursions and also to build support for U.S. economic and military aid. He met with members of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, President Obama and Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Since Pakistan will not allow United States troops in the country, these efforts are under command of the Pakistani Army. By October, the army was successful in recapturing the important Swat Valley from the Taliban.

Richard Holbrooke, the special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan, stressed the need to support the Pakistani leadership in May, "Asif Ali Zardari is the democratically elected president. He should be treated as the leader of a country who vitally needs our support and whose success is vitally related to American interests." Holbrooke also said the administration would not even discuss a "Plan B" in case the Zardari government collapsed, since that would "undercut his legitimacy." Husain Haqqani, Pakistan's ambassador to the United States, said that "Pakistan has the will to confront violent extremism and terrorism, but we need American support to do it." Some Congressional lawmakers have wanted to withhold aid to Pakistan unless the United States gains access to A.Q. Khan, the Pakistani nuclear scientist who sold technology to North Korea, Libya and Iran. This has been a festering issue between the U.S. and Pakistan for years since Khan's activities were revealed.

What has been our strategy against Al Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistan this past year? Administration officials report that of the 20 most wanted Al Qaeda leaders in the Pakistani tribal areas, eleven have been killed or captured since July 2008. Another four who were added to the top 20 list have also been killed or captured. Still at large are Bin Laden, his deputy al-Zawahri and the top Afghan Taliban leader, Mullah Muhammad Omar. The Taliban leader, Baitullah Mehsud was killed in a U.S. air strike in August. The successes are linked to the increased use of Predator and Reaper drones operated by the Central Intelligence Agency over the ungoverned mountainous border regions of Pakistan.

Congress passed the aid package for Pakistan in late September, $7.5 billion for civilian needs over the next five years. Along with the $1.5 billion a year, we asked the Pakistani government to ensure that the military would not interfere with civilian politics, and that there be increased action against the Taliban. The United States Embassy had also made public their plans to build a huge new building in Islamabad for l,000 people with security for the diplomats provided by a Washington-based private contractor, Dyn-Corp. The unintended result of these events was an increase in strong anti-American feeling in Pakistan. There were angry demonstrations in August by the Islamic party, Jamaat-e-Islami against the proposed embassy expansion. The military and intelligence agencies see Dyn-Corp. as an attempt to create a network of security and intelligence personnel within Pakistan. As a result of these suspicions, there is a review taking place of Dyn-Corp., its scope and functions.

Different political leaders have spoken out forcefully against United States' influence in the country. Senator Tariq Aziz, a member of the opposition party, warned that the aid legislation is "the charter for new colonization." Jahangir Tareen, a former cabinet minister and currently a member of Parliament, said in an interview, "People think this government has sold us to the Americans again, for their own selfish interests." He added, "Some people think the United States is out to get Pakistan, to defang Pakistan, to destroy the army as it exists so it can't fight India . . . Everyone is saying about the Americans, 'Told you so.'" It is important to note that during the 8 years of U.S. civilian and military aid to the previous government under General Pervez Musharraf, the army raised no objections and there were no anti-American reactions.

During the first weeks of October, a series of attacks by the Taliban, Al Qaeda and Punjabi militant groups were aimed at top security installations. Three teams of insurgents overran two police training centers and a federal investigations building on October 15, killing 30 people in Lahore, Pakistan's second largest city. On the same day, two attacks on a police station in Kihat and a residential complex in Peshwar, capital of the North West Frontier Province, killed nine more people. These attacks followed a 20-hour siege at the army headquarters in Rawalpindi the previous weekend.

In response to the escalating violence, Interior Minister Rehman Malik said that "a syndicate" of militant groups wanted to see "Pakistan as a failed state." In Washington, senior intelligence officials saw the coordinated attacks as a sign of operations influenced by Al Qaeda. Earlier in October, American ambassador Anne Patterson had said in public that Pakistan should eliminate Mullah Omar, the Afghan Taliban leader. Her remarks went further to say that if Pakistan did not do that, the United States would.

President Obama signed the $7.5 billion aid package to Pakistan on October 15. Senate and House leaders also released a statement reassuring the Pakistani government that the aid did not impinge on their sovereignty. However, it is very doubtful that the Taliban, Al Qaeda and Punjabi militants would be affected by words from our Congressional leaders. Their aim appears to be on target to undermine the Pakistani army, cause disruption and terror among the civilian population, and overthrow the shaky Zardari government.

A review of the Afghanistan War and assessment of goals and strategy must take into account what is happening across the mountains in Pakistan. It is there - with the threat of a nuclear arsenal - that the future of the entire region may very well be determined.

Joyce S. Anderson is the author of "Courage in High Heels," "Flaw in the Tapestry," "If Winter Comes" and "The Mermaids Singing." She can be reached at JSAWrite@aol.com.