Since the Iranian Revolution in l979, the United States has not been in direct talks or negotiations with their government. On September 11, the Obama administration said that the U.S. would accept Iran's offer to meet, contained in a five-page letter, sent also to Britain, France, Russia, China and Germany. Titled "Cooperation, Peace, and Justice," the September 9 letter covered broad themes, including : democracy, human rights, terrorism, United Nations reform and a Middle East settlement.

Emissaries from the other five nations have negotiated with Iran in the past, but the United States only sent a representative once at the end of the Bush administration. In 2006, when the U.S. offered to meet with Iran if it first suspended its uranium enrichment program, Iran never responded. The United Nations has issued a series of sanctions against Iran for its failure to comply with demands that it stop enriching uranium. A State Department spokesman, Philip Crowle said, "We'll be looking to see if they are willing to engage seriously on these issues. If we have talks, we will plan to bring up the nuclear issue."

What do we know about Iran's nuclear program? The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is the nuclear watchdog of the United Nations. Their inspectors have provided basic information: Iran has installed more than 8,000 centrifuges - the machines that enrich uranium - at its main underground facility at Natanz. At the last inspection, Iran was using only about half to enrich uranium. In order to create a bomb or missile warhead, it would have to convert its stockpile of low-grade enriched uranium into bombgrade material. Iran would also have to produce or buy a weapons design with triggering mechanisms, small enough to fit into one of its missiles.

Iran has insisted for years that they are enriching uranium for peaceful purposes. President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has also maintained that as a sovereign nation, Iran has the right to develop nuclear energy. Having survived the tumultuous June election and facing continued internal opposition, he hews to that line as a rallying point against the United Nations or any other country dictating to Iranians. However, he has made two recent decisions that may hint at more cooperation on the nuclear issue. He chose a respected physicist, Ali Akbar Salehi, as a vice president and chief of Iran's nuclear agency. Mr. Salehi had served as Iran's representative to the IAEA when the reform leader Mohammad Khatami was president. He also retained the foreign minister, Manouchehehr Mottaki, a moderate, in a predominantly conservative cabinet.

In 2007, President Bush received a 140-page National Intelligence Estimate drawn from American spy agencies that had broken into Iran's military computer networks. Most of the country's early nuclear activity had been completely missed for nearly l8 years until a dissident group revealed that nuclear enrichment was taking place. The report said that the country had stopped its weapons design program in 2003. Officials warn that the report and recent intelligence indicate that Iran could be conducting uranium enrichment or weapons design at remote locations that have not been discovered by inspectors. The latest intelligence reports given to the White House conclude that Iran has paused before the last steps to making a bomb.

Glyn Davies, the American ambassador to the IAEA. announced on September 9 that Iran had reached a "possible breakout capacity" of enriching its stockpile of uranium to convert it to bomb-grade material. The "breakout" phrase refers to a non-nuclear nation's ability to acquire sufficient fuel and expertise to quickly build a nuclear weapon. The official American estimate is that Iran could produce a nuclear weapon between 2010 and 2015.

Meir Dagan, the director of the Mossad, Israel's main intelligence agency, told the Israeli Parliament in June that unless action was taken, Iran would create its first bomb by 2014. The official position was stated by Michael Oren, Israel's new ambassador to Washington when he said, "Israel expects that the international community will prevent Iran from gaining nuclear military capabilities." However, Israel's position has been made clear to the United States, that they believe the weapons design was secretly resumed in 2005 at the order of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. A senior Israeli intelligence official said, "We're all looking at the same set of facts. We are interpreting them quite differently than the White House does."

Israel is not paranoid. They have been listening attentively the past four years as Ahmadinejad repeatedly declared that "Israel should be wiped off the face of the earth!" A Holocaust denier, he has castigated Israel from Teheran and the dais of the United Nations Assembly. Obama's Cairo speech, that stressed a freeze on Israel's settlements instead of the threat of Iran, was received very negatively in Israel. The possibility that Israel may strike the nuclear facility at Natanz is not a secret as the air strike against Iraq's reactor in l981 was or against Syria's reactor in 2007. The Israelis have conducted air-combat exercises at long range and sent warships through the Suez Canal. They have also spoken openly with reporters that they could accomplish the mission. Their strategy appears to be aimed at the least of prodding the United States to work for stronger sanctions against Iran. At most, they would hope the United States would see the wisdom of a U.S. air strike at Natanz before a nuclear warhead is created.

At July's G-8 summit, Iran was given a September deadline to start negotiations over its nuclear program. Iran said "No" to this ultimatum. On September 15, the Bipartisan Policy Center reported that by next year, Iran "will be able to produce a weapon's worth of highly enriched uranium . . . in less than two months." Iran did allow the IAEA inspectors to visit the Arak heavy water reactor, near completion. And Tehran agreed that the agency could expand their monitoring of the Natanz site. Finally, Israel is seriously weighing the imminent delivery to Iran of Russian S-300 anti-aircraft batteries.

As talks with Iran begin on October 1, the United States and the five other nations must realize that Ahmadinejad will be in a weakened position internally. Muhammad Sahimi, an Iranian expatriate and professor at the University of Southern California, said, "He is being opposed on all sides. Khamenei's authority has been damaged. Cracks in the conservative camp have become too glaring and every day there are new revelations."

However, Israel must protect the nation's safety and determine their strategy on more than the problems Ahmadinejad confronts. And the fact that the United States is taking part in talks for the first time. They may decide that they do not have the luxury of waiting until the Russian anti-aircraft batteries arrive in Iran - before they strike at the nuclear facility at Natanz.

Joyce S. Anderson is the author of "Courage in High Heels," "Flaw in the Tapestry," "If Winter Comes" and "The Mermaids Singing." She can be reached at JSAWrite@aol.com.