Dimensions
Between late April and the end of May, the Treasury Department has been mailing out more than $50 billion of the $100 billion in tax rebates it plans to distribute to 132 million households. $600 to an individual and $1,200 to a couple. The last two digits on one's social security number determined the order of the mailings. The purpose, of course, is to give a jolt to the lagging American economy, assuming that consumers with more dollars in their pockets will spend them.
Government economists report that consumer spending amounts to 70 percent of all American economic activity and project that the stimulus checks will keep the economy growing at a modest rate through the summer. They also expect that there would be fewer layoffs. They draw upon the results of the 2001 economic stimulus, when spending increased in the initial six months, and expect $20 to $50 billion to be spent by consumers. Their assumption is that it worked then and it will work now.
What is the evidence so far? Are consumers spending their checks?
And if they are spending the money, where are they spending it?
During the past year, problems in the American economy have been blamed on families and individuals spending beyond their incomes, relying on credit cards and loans against the value of their homes.We have read many wrenching personal stories of people losing their homes in the mortgage crisis. The stimulus checks arrive at this time and surveys find that many people are not going out to spend in the stores. They are paying off some of their debts or saving the money.
Abroad based survey, taken by a leading financial house, Goldman Sachs, found that 51 percent of the recipients of the stimulus checks were paying debts, outstanding bills and saving the rest. The other 49 percent were spending: 20 percent at discount retailers, 12 percent grocery stores, 14 percent clothing stores, 12 percent on trips, 11 percent home improvement, 8 percent big ticket item for home, 7 percent auto related, 8 percent electronics, 4 percent luxury purchase, and 3 percent club store. The overall conclusion is that just under half of the money is going where the Treasury Department hoped it would go.
Andrew Tilton, a senior economist at Goldman Sachs, said, "We don't think this will fundamentally cycle up the economy. For a few months, you will see a noticeable uptick, but as you get into the fall and winter that goes away, and then you're looking at all these unresolved problems." This view was supported by a survey in February by the International Council of Shopping Centers that found 46 percent of the stimulus recipients planned to use rebate checks to pay down debt. This number jumped to 51 percent by May. The rising cost of gasoline at the pump is another major cost factor families must consider. The National Retail Federation estimated in February that about 12 million rebate recipients planned to spend some of the money to buy gasoline. By May, the same source reported the number at 17.2 million - a spurt of more than 40 percent.
On the front lines, reports from retail stores across the country are mixed. "We haven't seen the effect," said Tony Khoury, the store director at Ralphs supermarket in the West Adams district of Los Angeles. " For people here, what's on sale this week is what they'll have for dinner. They just live day to day." In Southfield, Michigan, a suburb of Detroit, Chad Ratliff, the manager of a Lowe's home improvement store, reported that sales had been flat despite a store promotion inviting customers to cash their rebate checks there. In Dallas, Steven Snow, 60 and his wife Julia, quickly spent their dollars on gas and groceries. Snow said, "We spent it just trying to live. They wanted everyone to spend it on stuff they don't need from Wal- Mart and Home Depot. But really, how far does $600 go?"
Beyond the statistical analysis of the Goldman Sachs survey, interviews gave anecdotal evidence of varying reactions to the stimulus check.William Meiklejohn, a self-employed computer technician in Miami, said that he and his wife own their home and two cars. "We're going to buy a 42-inch television. No sense stashing away the $1,200 rebate in a savings account. If I spend it, it stimulates the economy. If people go around paying bills, it's not going to make any difference."
In sharp contrast was the response of Lili Gomez, a 54- year old property manager in Miami who is the sole support of the household since her husband was injured last year. She said, "These days, you never know what can happen, and we're at an age where we feel like we need to save."
Attitudes varied widely toward the rebate checks. In Buckeye, Arizona, Shawn and Leslie De Jesus have four children and a fifth on the way. As a utility worker, he earns $60,000 a year while she is a full time homemaker. "It's hard for a family of seven to be able to save money. We needed something like this," Mrs. De Jesus said. A skeptical reaction came from Joy Osmanski, 22, an actress in Los Angeles. "It's insulting and patronizing to try to satisfy a whole nation of people with a little payout. To think it's actually going to inject the economy with anything - that's bogus."
At the end of the next six months, we will know whether the hoped for $20 billion to $50 billion in rebate checks were spent, saved or used to pay off debts. Most experts predict that the economy will be left with the same problems - a deteriorating job market, lower pay checks, tight credit for consumers and businesses, and the continuation of falling real estate prices.
Have you spent your stimulus check yet? Just wondering . . .
Joyce S. Anderson's articles have appeared in the New York Times, the Philadelphia Inquirer and other national publications. She is the author of "Courage in High Heels," "Flaw in the Tapestry," "If Winter Comes" and "The Mermaids Singing." She can be reached at JSAWrite@aol.com.







